We looked inside some of the tweets by @srmaass and here's what we found interesting.
Inside 100 Tweets
Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are "expensive" are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely). https://www.academia.edu/39149471/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic …
Replying to @rationalexpec
If the contest is well designed, it can prevent overfitting. For example, consider @numerai: (1) they obfuscate the datasets; (2) researchers never receive the y-array of the testing set; (3) researchers must stake money to receive an award. How could selection bias take place?
On trade, Trump is the great disrupter. So it is natural to attribute the current slowdown in global trade to Trump. But that's too simple. If you set aside commodities and US-Chinese trade (impacted by tariffs), US imports are still growing. China? Not so much 1/x
Mixed news from the euro area this morning, including weak manufacturing PMIs, strong credit flows (*excluding* Italy), lower unemployment (*including* Italy). Real M1 still pointing towards sluggish growth but no recession. Either way, ECB still likely to cut in September.
"Going with the FX flow" I wrote a paper showing how to use @CLSGroup FX flow data to trade FX systematically! Download the full paper from https://www.cuemacro.com/2019/05/10/going-with-the-fx-flow/ …
For a long time full employment was just a number, but now inflation is low and Fed is gathering input from the community on “what full employment means” as part of its strategy review. Rich Clarida has an alternative that sounds more like conflict theory https://bloom.bg/2ImhKV1